JPMorgan says current bitcoin price 'too low,' sees upside to $126,000 by year-end
Quick Take Bitcoin’s current price is “too low” compared to gold, given its volatility has fallen to historic lows, JPMorgan analysts said. On a volatility-adjusted basis, the analysts see bitcoin’s fair value at about $126,000 by year-end.
The current price of bitcoin is "too low" compared to gold as its volatility has collapsed to record lows, according to JPMorgan analysts.
Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen from nearly 60% at the start of the year to about 30% now — a historical low. As a result, the analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, said in a Thursday note that bitcoin's fair value sits around $126,000.
"Yes this is the upside we highlighted in our note, which we envisage to be reached by year end," Panigirtzoglou told The Block, sharing the specific timeline.
A surge in corporate treasury purchases, which now account for more than 6% of bitcoin’s total supply, has played a major role in suppressing volatility. JPMorgan compared the dynamic to central bank quantitative easing after 2008, which reduced bond market swings by locking assets into passive holdings.
Passive inflows in bitcoin are also being driven by the global inclusion of equity indices. Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy’s) addition to major benchmarks has already drawn new inflows, while Metaplanet’s upgrade to mid-cap status in FTSE Russell indices triggered its inclusion in the FTSE All-World Index, the analysts noted.
Meanwhile, competition among corporate treasuries is intensifying. Nasdaq-listed KindlyMD has filed to raise up to $5 billion after designating bitcoin as its primary reserve, while Adam Back's BSTR is said to be aiming to rival Marathon Digital as the second-largest corporate holder behind Strategy.
The analysts said the combination of corporate treasury accumulation, index-driven inflows, and falling volatility is boosting bitcoin’s investment case. Lower volatility, they added, makes it easier for institutions to allocate capital, with bitcoin and gold now closer than ever in risk-adjusted terms.
The volatility ratio of bitcoin to gold has dropped to 2.0 — the lowest on record — meaning bitcoin currently consumes twice as much risk capital as gold in portfolio allocations, the analysts said. On that basis, bitcoin’s $2.2 trillion market cap would need to rise by around 13%, implying a theoretical price of $126,000, to match the roughly $5 trillion of private gold investment . The analysts also noted the gap has swung from bitcoin trading $36,000 above this fair-value level at the end of 2024 to about $13,000 below it today, pointing to further upside potential.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
U.S. non-farm payrolls surge by 165,000 in October, far exceeding expectations! Unemployment rate unexpectedly drops to 4.1%, December rate hike expectations intensify
In October, US non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, which is 2.5 times the Wall Street median forecast of 65,000 and represents an exceptionally strong deviation of about 5 standard deviations, exceeding the upper limit of all institutional forecast ranges. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the market had expected it to remain unchanged; average hourly wages also accelerated year-on-year growth to 3.1%. Meanwhile, the previous two months' non-farm payrolls were revised upwards by a total of 84,000. Following the release of the data, the yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 7 basis points, and the pricing of the probability of a Fed rate hike in December climbed to 70%.
AI Sell-off Hits Anthropic IPO, Potential Valuation Expected to Drop to $1.2–1.3 Trillion
The valuation range discussed by potential investors has been lowered from the previous high of $2 trillion to between $1.2 trillion and $1.3 trillion, and some strategists have even suggested going below $1 trillion to ensure safety. In the face of significant market volatility and financial concerns such as quarterly losses, Anthropic is facing tough decisions, including a discounted valuation, reducing the size of the offering, or postponing the listing.
Moderna Q3 revenue up 29% year-on-year, far exceeding expectations, raises full-year revenue growth guidance to 15%-25% | Earnings Report Insight
Moderna's Q3 revenue increased by 29% year-on-year to $1.31 billion, with profits significantly exceeding expectations. The company raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance to 15%-25%. The ramp-up of next-generation COVID-19 and flu vaccines, along with international market expansion, has driven performance improvement. Phase III data for the personalized cancer vaccine has also shown positive progress. The company is simultaneously advancing cost reduction and pipeline R&D, with year-end cash expectations significantly raised.
Crypto prices
More
