Arthur Hayes: Fed Shift Could Catapult Bitcoin to $1 Million
Arthur Hayes projects a $1 million Bitcoin price based on the Federal Reserve's potential policy shift towards yield curve control, which he argues would devalue the dollar and drive capital into alternative assets.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has reignited the debate over a seven-figure Bitcoin price, presenting a new bullish case for the cryptocurrency.
His projection hinges on what he sees as an imminent shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy.
Powell’s Stance vs the Potential New Era
In a recent post on his X (formerly Twitter) account, Hayes pointed to comments made by Stephen Miran, a recent nominee for the Fed’s Board of Governors. The comments were made during his congressional hearing. According to reports, Miran mentioned that “moderate long-term interest rates” would be one of the Fed’s new duties.
Hayes interprets this as a strong signal that the Fed is moving toward a Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy.
With Fed board member Miran now confirmed, the MSM is preparing the world for the Fed's "third mandate" which is essentially yield curve control. LFG!YCC -> $BTC = $1m
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 16, 2025
Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been at odds with the Trump administration regarding monetary policy. He has instead focused more on the Fed’s other mandates of maximum employment and stable prices, rather than long-term rates.
However, Powell’s term is set to expire in May of next year, and Hayes believes it would open the door for the Fed to implement aggressive long-term rate control if a pro-Trump figure is appointed as the next chair. He argues that if the Fed were to adopt YCC, real interest rates would likely turn negative.
This scenario would lead to a decline in the dollar’s value, prompting capital to flow into alternative assets. In this environment, Hayes projects that Bitcoin could soar to $1 million due to the dollar’s declining purchasing power.
A Bullish Bet on the Trump Era
Hayes’s observations are supported by recent public statements from Trump administration officials who have repeatedly emphasized the need to “moderate long-term interest rates.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also explicitly dubbed this in a September 5 op-ed for The Wall Street Journal, where he criticized the Fed for neglecting its legal mandate to maintain moderate long-term interest rates.
Arthur Hayes is confident the cryptocurrency market could grow significantly under a Trump administration. In an August post, he projected that the current crypto bull market could extend through 2026.
He specifically analyzed the likelihood that a Trump administration would initiate economic stimulus measures in mid-2026, a policy he believes has the potential to support a market rally.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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