Insight: 2026 May See a "Crypto Winter," but Institutionalization and On-chain Transformation are Accelerating

BlockBeats News, December 29th, Cantor Fitzgerald pointed out in its latest year-end report that Bitcoin may be entering a prolonged multi-month downward cycle, with the market possibly stepping into an early "crypto winter" in 2026. Analyst Brett Knoblauch believes that Bitcoin has fallen back from this cycle's peak for about 85 days, and the price may continue to be under pressure, even testing the Strategy's average cost line around $75,000.

However, unlike previous cycles, this downward cycle is unlikely to be accompanied by a large-scale liquidation or systemic collapse. Cantor notes that the current market is dominated by institutions rather than retail investors, and the "divergence" between token price performance and on-chain fundamentals is widening, especially in the DeFi, tokenized assets, and crypto infrastructure sectors.

On the regulatory front, the passage of the U.S. "Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act" is seen as a key turning point, expected to reduce policy uncertainty and drive banks and asset management institutions to more deeply engage in the crypto market.

Cantor concluded that although 2026 may not usher in a new bull market, the institutionalization of the crypto industry, compliance pathways, and on-chain infrastructure are gradually solidifying while the price cools down.