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CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency analytics company, has published a noteworthy onchain analysis of Bitcoin’s current price structure.
The company stated that a critical cost level, which has distinguished bull and bear markets in all past cycles, has been lost.
According to CryptoQuant, the average cost level of a “medium-weighted” group of investors—those holding 10 to 10,000 BTC and having moved their coins within the last 1 to 3 months—has historically been a defining threshold of market structure. These investors reflect sentiment because they are both sufficiently active and have the size to influence the market.
The current price of this group is around $89,822. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has not been able to rise above this level since mid-January 2026.
The company stated that this level is significant, referring to the 2021 bull market. When Bitcoin reached its all-time high (ATH) of approximately $67,551 in November 2021, the average cost for this group of investors was around $33,700.
During the mid-cycle correction, the price did not fall below this cost level. This kept market sentiment positive. However, in June 2022, the bear market was officially confirmed when Bitcoin dropped to approximately $18,945, falling about 30% below the cost of this group.
According to CryptoQuant, the current cycle unfolds differently. The price for the same group of investors rose to $94,000 by the end of 2025. However, the Bitcoin price fell below this level in mid-December 2025 and failed to recover.
As of today, BTC is trading at approximately $66,424. This represents a price roughly 26% below the average cost for active and moderately sized investors.
According to the analysis, this group’s continued losses are a dynamic that has historically led to prolonged bear markets. Comparisons with the 2021 correction are said to overlook this critical difference. At that time, this group of investors did not enter the loss zone; today, however, they are significantly losing money.
CryptoQuant argues that for the on-chain structure to regain a healthy appearance, Bitcoin needs to recover the $89,800 level and maintain its position above it.
