Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan said the company’s rise is bringing a new kind of problem.
Speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2026, Shayne said the prediction market business is facing growing risk around war contracts as the platform gets bigger and more visible.
The man put it like this: “The richer we get, the more haters we get.” That came as Polymarket kept taking heavy action on geopolitical questions and drew more attention to the kind of markets many companies do not want near their business.
Shayne said prediction markets still give people useful information, but he admitted that war markets come with confusion and backlash. He called Iran “complicated” and said “the fog of war breeds misunderstanding.”
He also said, “There’s still a lot of resistance to innovation that kind of also seems jarring to begin with,” then added, “that’s what makes it innovative and disruptive.”
Shayne Coplan defends Polymarket’s use during US-Israel war in Iran
User-compiled data on Dune Analytics showed that bettors placed $425.4 million on geopolitical questions on Polymarket in the week ending March 1.
A week earlier, that total stood at $163.9 million. That jump pushed more attention onto a category that already sits in a legal gray area. U.S. regulations are generally understood to block financial contracts tied to war.
Most prediction market platforms avoid that space. Polymarket’s main exchange operates offshore, which lets it offer contracts that would face much tougher limits inside the United States.
Shayne said people are using Polymarket for reasons far more serious than entertainment. He said users in the Middle East have contacted him and told him they look at Polymarket when deciding whether to sleep near a bomb shelter. Shayne described that reaction himself:
“When I get hit up by people in the Middle East who are saying, ‘Hey, we’re looking at Polymarket to decide whether we sleep near the bomb shelter; we look at it every day’ and I’m like, ‘Oh, it’s really that popular over there?’ That’s very powerful. That’s an undeniable value proposition that did not exist before.”
He also tried to separate prediction markets from other kinds of trading. “Not all markets are equal,” Shayne said. He called it “apples to oranges” and said the real value of prediction markets is information.
To Shayne, this is not a business where people are posting huge open orders or trading huge sizes.
Rivals Kalshi and Polymarket chase $20 billion talks
As Polymarket deals with pressure over war contracts, it is also in talks for a far bigger valuation.
Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction market companies, have both recently held talks with potential investors about fundraising rounds that could value each company at about $20 billion.
Both businesses were valued at around half that level late last year. Those talks are still early, and there is no guarantee either company will get a deal done at that number, especially as questions grow around how both platforms operate.
Kalshi is already live in the U.S. and has helped push a new wave of sports-related wagering. The company also offers bets tied to politics, the economy, and pop culture.
Kalshi was last valued at $11 billion when it raised $1 billion in December from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. Sources said Kalshi recently crossed a $1 billion revenue run rate, and one source said that number is now around $1.5 billion.
Polymarket is still off-limits to U.S. users. Americans can still reach it through a VPN, even though the company’s terms ban U.S. users, and it can use geoblocking tools to remove them from the platform.
Polymarket plans to release a domestically regulated version of its app this year. The company was last valued at $9 billion in October after Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion, data from PitchBook showed.
Both companies have also gone hard after college users. That strategy has already produced questionable trades. One example was a burst of bets on Jeff Bezos’ whereabouts during the Super Bowl by members of his stepson’s fraternity.
Kalshi and Polymarket have both pushed ads across social media and actively courted college fraternities and other campus groups as they race for more users.
