Over the past year, a recurring question has gripped macroeconomic markets: Why has Bitcoin lagged behind gold? In 2025, gold soared by 65%, not only outpacing other major assets but also climbing to an all-time high of $5,608 at the start of 2026. In stark contrast, Bitcoin has retreated 44% from its record high of $126,000, now hovering around the $70,000 mark. This widening gap is once again casting doubt on the “digital gold” narrative and raising questions about the future direction of both assets.
Lyn Alden and Fidelity Weigh In
Economist and macro strategy expert Lyn Alden argues that the current discrepancy between gold and Bitcoin should not be seen as an indictment of Bitcoin; rather, she views it as the potential dawn of a new upswing. Alden points out that a pendulum effect has existed between the two assets in the past, and she believes this cycle may again swing in Bitcoin’s favor. According to Alden, while gold is trading in what she describes as an “exuberant” mood, Bitcoin faces persistently negative sentiment. Such contrasting market outlooks, she notes, can often create fertile ground for new trading opportunities.
This perspective is echoed by Chris Kuiper, an analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, in his 2026 outlook. Kuiper’s report highlights that gold’s stellar performance in 2025 was historically rare, making a subsequent shift toward Bitcoin plausible. The report also emphasizes that both assets appeal to the same macroeconomic considerations, increasingly favored as stores of value outside the traditional financial system.
Shifting Tides in ETF Flows
The first tangible signs of a market shakeup have emerged in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This week, the GLD—America’s largest gold-backed ETF—saw a record one-day outflow of $3 billion, the biggest in two years. This reversal comes after gold ETFs experienced record inflows over the previous two months, signaling abrupt changes in investor sentiment.
Meanwhile, the narrative flipped for Bitcoin ETFs. As of March 6, the 30-day net flow swung to an inflow of $273 million, after logging a $1.9 billion outflow back in February. In net terms, Bitcoin ETFs added 4,021 Bitcoins during this period, whereas gold ETF holdings shrank dramatically from 1.4 million ounces to just 621,100 ounces.
Joe Consorti, head of growth at Horizon, summarized the transition:
“While gold plateaus, Bitcoin is gaining rapid ground. With the U.S. economy regaining momentum and a growing appetite for risk, Bitcoin’s returns in the past month are set to overtake those of gold. This could signal the start of a rotation from risk aversion to risk-taking among investors.”
Diverging Time Horizons and Macro Fundamentals
Not everyone is convinced that a full-scale shift is underway. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, maintains a $250,000 year-end target for Bitcoin but says he is not rushing into new investments. Hayes is closely watching for a return to expansionary monetary policies from central banks before making a decisive move:
“If I had a dollar right now, I wouldn’t put it into Bitcoin just yet. I’ll be looking for central banks to start printing money as my buy signal.”
Hayes further contends that escalating tensions in the Middle East could push the U.S. Federal Reserve toward new stimulus measures—a shift he regards as a potential main driver for Bitcoin’s next rally.
Behind the medium- and long-term appeal of both assets is what Fidelity identifies as the mounting and unsustainable weight of U.S. debt. America’s national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with interest payments consuming a growing slice of the federal budget. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with global money supply, frequently outperforming as monetary policy becomes more accommodative.
In summary, while gold tends to react sharply to short-term shocks, Bitcoin is more sensitive to liquidity cycles. The gold boom of 2025 was largely driven by central bank acquisitions and reserve diversification, but a similar trend could soon bolster Bitcoin in the medium term if financial conditions shift.
