Bernstein sees over 100% upside for Figure as monthly loan volume tops $1 billion for first time
Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein reiterated a $67 price target on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR), after trimming it from $72 in late March, while reaffirming an outperform rating following the company's preliminary first-quarter results showing record loan origination volumes.
Shares in Figure closed at $32.30 on April 6, with Bernstein’s price target implying about 107% upside from that level. The analysts value the company at 25 times estimated 2027 EBITDA.
In a note to clients on Monday, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani noted that March 2026 was the first month in which Figure crossed $1 billion in loan volumes, a milestone they attributed to the success of the company's tokenized credit marketplace.
Record monthly lending activity
Figure reported about $1.2 billion in consumer loan volume for March, representing a 33% month-over-month increase. First-quarter volume totaled $2.9 billion, representing 7% sequential growth and a 113% year-over-year gain, per the note.
The analysts noted that the first quarter is historically a weak period for home equity line of credit (HELOC) loans. Figure's growth during the period, they said, demonstrated the strength of its partner network, which includes more than 300 active partners, and the success of newer loan categories.
Figure is tracking approximately $12 billion in annualized loan volumes, according to the note. This implies a 39% year-over-year growth over calendar year 2025, although the company did not disclose a breakdown of loan volumes by product in its monthly update.
Bernstein estimated that first-lien loans, which carry a lower take rate than standard HELOCs, continued to grow. In the fourth quarter of 2025, first-lien loans represented a 19% share of volumes, according to the note.
For 2026, Bernstein expects Figure to originate $12.8 billion in loan volumes, representing 53% year-over-year growth. New loan categories are projected to contribute $1.7 billion, or 13% of total volumes, compared with approximately 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
At the same time, the research and brokerage firm expects the Connect marketplace to become the dominant model for Figure, contributing 56% of total volumes by the end of calendar year 2026, up from 46% in calendar year 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Connect volume reached 54% of its Consumer Loan Marketplace volume, up from 46% in the prior quarter, according to Figure’s recent earnings report.
Financial outlook and risks
Bernstein projected Figure’s reported earnings per share to reach $0.98 in 2026 and $1.52 in 2027, compared to $0.54 in 2025.
However, the analysts identified several macro risks, including a potential decline in interest rates that could increase competition in the mortgage refinancing market and reduce demand for HELOCs.
They also noted that any delay in the expansion into non-HELOC loan categories could impact the projected 20% volume contribution from those sectors by 2027.
Bernstein and its affiliates have had recent investment banking and other business relationships with Figure and expect to seek additional compensation. Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
October Non-farm Payrolls Reignite December Rate Hike Expectations! Wall Street Bets Probability Over 80%, "New Fed News Agency": AI Sell-off May Become a Policy Variable
After the non-farm payroll report, traders' bets on a December rate hike surged to as high as 85%. Wall Street analysts believe the report provides room for further rate hikes, bringing renewed pressure for a hike at a time when post-election market concerns over slowing AI development might dampen expectations. Some remain cautious about a December hike, as stock market volatility and AI investment prospects could restrain the Federal Reserve. "New Fed News Agency" notes the report has not shaken the Fed's outlook on economic growth and inflation, but whether AI asset sell-offs change financial conditions could become a new variable for the December decision. Attention should be paid to whether Waller values lagging employment data or forward-looking market signals.
U.S. non-farm payrolls surge by 165,000 in October, far exceeding expectations! Unemployment rate unexpectedly drops to 4.1%, December rate hike expectations intensify
In October, US non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, which is 2.5 times the Wall Street median forecast of 65,000 and represents an exceptionally strong deviation of about 5 standard deviations, exceeding the upper limit of all institutional forecast ranges. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the market had expected it to remain unchanged; average hourly wages also accelerated year-on-year growth to 3.1%. Meanwhile, the previous two months' non-farm payrolls were revised upwards by a total of 84,000. Following the release of the data, the yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 7 basis points, and the pricing of the probability of a Fed rate hike in December climbed to 70%.
AI Sell-off Hits Anthropic IPO, Potential Valuation Expected to Drop to $1.2–1.3 Trillion
The valuation range discussed by potential investors has been lowered from the previous high of $2 trillion to between $1.2 trillion and $1.3 trillion, and some strategists have even suggested going below $1 trillion to ensure safety. In the face of significant market volatility and financial concerns such as quarterly losses, Anthropic is facing tough decisions, including a discounted valuation, reducing the size of the offering, or postponing the listing.
Crypto prices
More
