Grayscale Research Director: If Bitcoin Rises in the Next Few Days, It Could Be Seen as the Start of Bull Market Phase 1

BlockBeats News, April 22: Grayscale's Director of Research, Zach Pandl, released a report stating that the Bitcoin price hit a low of around $63,000 on February 5 and has since rebounded by over 20%, currently around $76,000—slightly above recent buyers' average cost basis.

Due to the full transparency of the Bitcoin blockchain, the cost basis of every transaction can be traced. Analysts often focus on a metric called "Realized Price," which is the weighted average price at the time of the last on-chain movement for all circulating coins. The realized price of Bitcoin transacted in the last 1 to 3 months is around $74,000, indicating that recent buyers have broken even. If the Bitcoin price continues to rise in the coming days, more recent buyers will shift to a profit position (positive PnL), which is typically seen as one of the signals of the beginning of the first phase of a bull market.

Key Takeaway: Although the Bitcoin price is still notably below last year's October peak, many recent buyers have returned to a breakeven point, indicating that Bitcoin may have formed a relatively solid market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range.