UAI (UnifAINetwork) fluctuates 50.2% in 24 hours: surge in trading volume and futures OI drive movement

After the non-farm payroll report, traders' bets on a December rate hike surged to as high as 85%. Wall Street analysts believe the report provides room for further rate hikes, bringing renewed pressure for a hike at a time when post-election market concerns over slowing AI development might dampen expectations. Some remain cautious about a December hike, as stock market volatility and AI investment prospects could restrain the Federal Reserve. "New Fed News Agency" notes the report has not shaken the Fed's outlook on economic growth and inflation, but whether AI asset sell-offs change financial conditions could become a new variable for the December decision. Attention should be paid to whether Waller values lagging employment data or forward-looking market signals.

In October, US non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, which is 2.5 times the Wall Street median forecast of 65,000 and represents an exceptionally strong deviation of about 5 standard deviations, exceeding the upper limit of all institutional forecast ranges. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the market had expected it to remain unchanged; average hourly wages also accelerated year-on-year growth to 3.1%. Meanwhile, the previous two months' non-farm payrolls were revised upwards by a total of 84,000. Following the release of the data, the yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 7 basis points, and the pricing of the probability of a Fed rate hike in December climbed to 70%.