British Pound rebounds as US Dollar weakens on Iran deal hopes
GBP/USD holds minor gains on Friday after rebounding from intraday lows, supported by improving risk sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3460 and is on course to end the week little changed.
A senior Iranian source told Reuters that "a political understanding has been reached between Iran and the US, but it has not yet been finalized." This comes after reports that both sides reached a proposed 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would extend the current ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that the naval blockade on Iranian ports would be lifted. Trump also said Iran “must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb” and added that the Strait of Hormuz “must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions.”
The cautious optimism pushed the US Dollar (USD) lower, helping the British Pound (GBP) recover part of the losses recorded earlier this week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around the 98.80 mark after hitting a seven-week high of 99.54 on Thursday.
Oil prices also eased following the latest developments. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $86 per barrel at the time of writing and heading for its first monthly decline in five months. However, crude prices still trade well above pre-war levels, keeping inflation risks alive.
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said earlier on Friday that “softness in the economy and uncertainty around the Iran war shock means tolerating temporarily above-target inflation is an appropriate way to approach the policy trade-off.” He added that the central bank has already “tightened policy considerably” after taking expected rate cuts off the table in response to the shock relative to what had been expected by markets.
Kansas City Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jeff Schmid said that policymakers “may need to weigh how to make monetary policy more restrictive” and stressed that the Fed “must signal commitment to lowering inflation.”
Looking ahead, traders next week will focus on the global flash PMI data and the US Employment Situation Report, which includes Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the Unemployment Rate and wage growth figures.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Bitcoin price dips under $75K as crypto markets miss tech-stock rebound
October Non-farm Payrolls Reignite December Rate Hike Expectations! Wall Street Bets Probability Over 80%, "New Fed News Agency": AI Sell-off May Become a Policy Variable
After the non-farm payroll report, traders' bets on a December rate hike surged to as high as 85%. Wall Street analysts believe the report provides room for further rate hikes, bringing renewed pressure for a hike at a time when post-election market concerns over slowing AI development might dampen expectations. Some remain cautious about a December hike, as stock market volatility and AI investment prospects could restrain the Federal Reserve. "New Fed News Agency" notes the report has not shaken the Fed's outlook on economic growth and inflation, but whether AI asset sell-offs change financial conditions could become a new variable for the December decision. Attention should be paid to whether Waller values lagging employment data or forward-looking market signals.
U.S. non-farm payrolls surge by 165,000 in October, far exceeding expectations! Unemployment rate unexpectedly drops to 4.1%, December rate hike expectations intensify
In October, US non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, which is 2.5 times the Wall Street median forecast of 65,000 and represents an exceptionally strong deviation of about 5 standard deviations, exceeding the upper limit of all institutional forecast ranges. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the market had expected it to remain unchanged; average hourly wages also accelerated year-on-year growth to 3.1%. Meanwhile, the previous two months' non-farm payrolls were revised upwards by a total of 84,000. Following the release of the data, the yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 7 basis points, and the pricing of the probability of a Fed rate hike in December climbed to 70%.
Crypto prices
More
