Analyst: STRC Decoupling as a Limit Test for the Market

On June 19, crypto analyst Murphy expressed strong agreement with @Guilin_Chen_'s viewpoint that the current decoupling of STRC can be seen as a limit test for the market. The decoupling has temporarily stripped STRC of its financing capabilities, and the timing of its re-pegging will influence market concerns regarding whether MSTR will sell coins again. Last time, MSTR sold only 32 BTC—though I believe this was more of a disguised expectation management rather than actual selling pressure—yet it shattered the psychological defenses of some long-term investors. The day after MSTR announced the coin sale, the net holdings of long-term holders (LTH) began to decline. The speed of distribution outpaced the accumulation of LTH and the conversion of short-term holders (STH), showcasing the ferocity of the momentum. The market, which was originally in a weak supply-demand equilibrium, was disrupted by this sudden excess supply, contributing to a rapid drop in BTC from 74,000 to 60,000. Therefore, the entire market is now focused on the 'STRC decoupling' event, which is essentially highly sensitive to whether MSTR will continue to sell coins. If it triggers another large-scale distribution by LTH, the current market demand would be unable to absorb it. Conversely, whenever the market experiences a cascading sell-off, the liquidity generated is most suitable for large funds to accumulate positions. Thus, when negative news is released but the price becomes increasingly difficult to push down, it indicates that a certain limit test may be nearing its end.