US Equity Markets End Lower as Strong PMI Data Lifts October Rate-Increase Odds

04:26 PM EDT, 09/23/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes ended lower Wednesday after a surge in private-sector output growth lifted expectations for another interest-rate increase in October and sent government bond yields higher. * S&P Global's flash purchasing managers' index data showed September's composite output gauge increased to 58.4 from 56 in August, marking a fourth straight monthly rise and higher than the consensus of 55.3 in a Bloomberg survey. * There's now a 66.4% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25% in October, up from 55.4% a day earlier and 8.8% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. * US mortgage applications fell 1.5% in the week ending Sept. 18, compared with a decline of 4.1% in the previous week, as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate increased to 7.12% from 6.97%. * October West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose $2.11 to settle at $92.64 per barrel, while November Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen up $4.35 at $103.60. * Paychex (PAYX) shares fell 8.8%, the steepest drop on the S&P 500, after the company reported fiscal Q1 revenue growth in line with market expectations, while management reiterated its full-year outlook amid a tough comparison in the current quarter. * Palo Alto Networks (PANW) shares rose 5%, the top gainer on the S&P 500, a day after the company launched Unit 42 Continuous Frontier AI Defense, an agentic offensive security service, integrating Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5, OpenAI's GPT-5.6-Cyber and open-weight models.