After the "bloodbath" in tech stocks, Anthropic IPO faces a crisis: Is it still worth $1.5 trillion? Should it go public at this moment?
As $2.5 trillion was wiped out from tech stocks in a single day, the IPO plans of AI star Anthropic are on shaky ground. Three major investors have explicitly questioned the $1.5 trillion target valuation, with some parties believing its actual value is closer to $1 trillion. Doubts have also emerged over whether the November roadshow will proceed as planned. Ongoing losses, missing key revenue data, and sudden shifts in AI policy—all add up to multiple headwinds, causing this listing, once poised to set the record for the largest IPO in history, to now face three tough choices: a discounted valuation, a reduced offering, or outright postponement.
AI star company Anthropic is currently facing a major test regarding its IPO plans. During the sharp tech stock sell-off two days after the midterm elections, Nasdaq Composite stocks lost $2.5 trillion in market capitalization in a single day. Once considered a "must-buy," the Anthropic IPO is now under simultaneous pressure on both valuation and timing fronts.
On Thursday, according to The Wall Street Journal and Reuters, sources revealed that three major investors planning to participate in the IPO made it clear that the $1.5 trillion target valuation may be difficult to achieve, with one investor believing the real valuation may be closer to $1 trillion. At the same time, some investors directly questioned whether the roadshow could start as scheduled the week of November 9. Confidence in Anthropic’s ability to complete its listing within the year is fading rapidly.
This situation carries far-reaching implications for the entire market. Anthropic has deep business ties with tech giants such as Google, Amazon, and Nvidia, and its IPO was originally expected to surpass this June’s record set by SpaceX, potentially becoming the largest public offering in history. If the listing plan fails or is forced to significantly downsize, it could further dampen already fragile sentiment in the AI sector and put additional pressure on a tech-stock-heavy market.
Market "bloodbath" marks the toughest test for AI confidence
The trigger for this round of tech stock selling was this week’s midterm election results. The outcome enabled a group of AI policy skeptics to enter the center of power, and several states passed moratoriums that could delay the construction of US data centers, directly hitting the core logic of AI infrastructure investment.
Over the next two trading days, AI-related assets saw a collective sell-off. Over 50 Nasdaq S&P 1500 technology stocks dropped by more than 10% in a single day. Data center and computing power concept stocks such as CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN led the losses, with each seeing their market caps halved over the past month. Credit default swap spreads covering CoreWeave and SpaceX both hit record highs, with market-implied default expectations for the coming years rising significantly.
Keith Lerner, Chief Investment Officer at Truist Advisory Services, said the tech sector underperformed the S&P 500 by 10.7% over the past month, marking the most extreme monthly underperformance since May 2002. He described the current sell-off as "uncomfortable but not unusual," while warning that "the rubber band is being stretched tighter and tighter." Data from Vanda Research shows that retail selling is the strongest since the COVID-19 pandemic.
During the same period, Microsoft tightened oversight on some data center projects by emerging cloud providers like Nebius, IREN, and Nscale, further intensifying concerns about a slowdown in AI infrastructure investment.
Valuation disputes surface, investors demand deeper discounts
Anthropic originally planned to complete its IPO the week before Thanksgiving, aiming to raise as much as $100 billion, corresponding to a valuation of around $1.5 trillion. Earlier this year, the market was once expecting a valuation as high as $2 trillion.
Now, according to Reuters, citing four sources, some investors have regarded $1.5 trillion as the valuation ceiling, not a reasonable benchmark, and are demanding the company offer a greater pricing discount before committing to subscriptions. Investor concerns stem not only from market volatility but also from an examination of Anthropic's fundamentals—the company has consistently posted quarterly losses and has significant capital commitments to its AI infrastructure partners.
Investors are also awaiting October revenue data, which was left blank in Anthropic’s latest S-1 amendment, to assess whether the company reaccelerated after slowing growth in recent months. The absence of this crucial data makes it even harder for institutional investors to make large bets in the current market environment.
According to The Wall Street Journal, another major investor bluntly stated that even if the market rebounds, convincing institutions that just lost money in the latest sell-off to once again heavily invest in the AI sector remains a significant challenge. This investor did not rule out the possibility of Anthropic postponing its IPO.
To list or to wait? Anthropic faces a dilemma
Anthropic executives and their advisors are expected to meet in the coming days to discuss follow-up IPO arrangements. According to insiders, the company has deliberately avoided making public commitments about a specific timeline throughout the preparation process, preserving flexibility for adjustments. As of September 30, the company had $146.6 billion in cash on hand.
Under external pressure, Anthropic faces multiple paths: move forward with the IPO at a lower valuation, reduce the fundraising scale, or simply delay until market conditions improve.
However, postponing the IPO is not without cost. Delays might further fuel concerns about the health of the AI ecosystem, especially against the backdrop of clear political signals restricting data center construction. Meanwhile, as one of the most highly valued AI companies, if Anthropic is seen as unable to complete its fundraising, it could have a negative spillover effect on overall market valuations, especially those heavily concentrated in large tech companies.
By comparison, rival AI company OpenAI’s recent funding struggle also highlights the cooling financing environment. According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI's most recent funding round has only raised about $11 billion so far—less than half of its initial $30 billion target—with the actual deal valuation settling at $1.25 trillion, also below prior expectations.
Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, remains cautiously optimistic about the market's long-term prospects: "These companies will ultimately be part of the future, and they will eventually go public. Investor interest is still there. Private market valuations have been rising for a long time, so a correction is normal." But he acknowledged that, in the current environment, whether this optimism can support Anthropic’s IPO at the desired price remains to be seen.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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