Tuesday's US October CPI report will lack year-on-year data due to the 2025 government shutdown.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October this Tuesday but will not publish year-over-year change data.

BLS spokesperson Cody Parkinson stated that during the 2025 government shutdown, the BLS was unable to collect some price data for that month in its entirety, and it is now impossible to retrospectively fill these gaps. As a result, the agency lacks the necessary baseline to calculate the 12-month year-over-year change in CPI and core CPI for October this year.

The actual wage year-over-year growth data related to this are also not being released.

Typically, year-over-year increases are the main reference for the public to understand inflation trends—the figure for September was 3.7%. The absence of this data means investors and analysts will not be able to obtain the most intuitive annual comparison of current inflation pressures from official sources.

For month-over-month data, economists expect October CPI to rise by 0.3%, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.2% month-over-month.

Last month, the Federal Reserve decided to stand pat with a 10-2 vote. Officials at the meeting stated that “accumulating more information” would help determine the optimal policy level.

The U.S. October CPI to be released on Tuesday, along with subsequent employment reports, will be key data references for the Federal Reserve’s December decision.